How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.