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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.